FED:Govt enters 2012 with no plan to stop boats

AAP General News (Australia)
12-30-2011
FED:Govt enters 2012 with no plan to stop boats

By Adam Gartrell

CANBERRA, AAP - Carbon tax? Check. Mining tax? Check. Boats stopped? Epic fail.

Julia Gillard this year found success on two of the three issues she vowed to fix when
she toppled Kevin Rudd.

But the prime minister is going into 2012 with asylum-seeker boat numbers on the rise
and dependent on the bipartisan goodwill of the opposition to create a real policy to
deter their passengers from trying to make the perilous journey to Australia.

How did this happen?

The year began with the federal government insisting Gillard's proposal for an asylum-seeker
processing centre in East Timor was still in play - even though that country's leaders
had rejected the plan in no uncertain terms.

With the overcrowded detention centre network slipping into chaos - illustrated most
spectacularly by the Christmas Island and Villawood riots - the government desperately
needed a lifeline.

It came from the most unexpected place: Malaysia.

On May 7 Gillard announced a deal with Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak to send
800 asylum seekers to Malaysia in exchange for 4000 people already judged to be genuine
refugees.

It was an unapologetically tough policy.

But before the government could get it up and running the High Court had ruled it illegal
and placed all offshore processing in doubt.

Immigration Minister Chris Bowen had insisted the government was on strong legal ground,
but he was spectacularly wrong.

The government refused to admit defeat, devising a plan to circumvent the court's ruling
by amending the Migration Act.

But in doing so Labor simply set itself up for a second humiliation.

It chose not to put the legislation to a vote after it became clear it could not even
attract enough crossbench support to get it through the lower house.

The government hasn't completely abandoned the Malaysia policy and is clinging to the
dream that 2012 will bring a fresh opportunity to resurrect it.

It's now prepared to seek a compromise with the Coalition on where Australia should
process asylum seekers who arrive by boat.

Just before Christmas, Acting Prime Minister Wayne Swan wrote to Opposition Leader
Tony Abbott seeking to break the political deadlock.

He proposed the government would talk to the island nation of Nauru about resurrecting
the former Howard coalition government's Pacific Solution and reopening its since abandoned
processing centre.

In return, the government wants the opposition to help it pass - unchanged - legislative
changes to the Migration Act that will allow the Malaysia deal to proceed.

High level talks between the government and coalition on December 23 failed to deliver
an immediate agreement, and now Bowen is banking on further discussions in the new year
to bear fruit.

But that hope flies in the face of everything we know about Abbott.

He's proven he will go to great lengths to deny Labor a win, even if it means voting
against a bill that would reinstate offshore processing, which he has long supported.

While Abbott appeared pleased to see Nauru back on the table, he was keeping to the
Coalition's push to grant temporary protection visas and turn back boats where it is safe
to do so.

With Malaysia out of the frame for now, the government has reluctantly introduced a
streamlined - and much softer - onshore processing system.

Australia is already seeing the effect of that policy.

About 900 boat people arrived in November, surpassing the immigration department's
predictions of 600 a month.

Since then, Australia has seen even more boats including a vessel carrying 116 passengers
that arrived off the coast of Western Australia on Christmas eve.

There was also a tragedy off Indonesia the week before, when a boat carrying about
200 sank on its way to Australia.

"In the absence of a breakthrough which would see our regional framework implemented,
it's difficult to see the situation changing," Bowen has conceded.

The government will move at least 100 asylum seekers into the community on bridging
visas every month in an attempt to keep pressure off the detention network. However, this
is unlikely to keep pace with arrivals, meaning, more detention centres could be on the
cards.

Bridging visa-holders, meanwhile, will be given work rights, healthcare access and
some financial support.

The government will also begin treating asylum seekers who arrive by boat the same
as those who arrive by plane, meaning they will have access to the Refugee Review Tribunal.

While the Labor Left, the Greens and human-rights campaigners have welcomed these new
on-shore measures, there's no doubt they provide an extra incentive for the thousands
of asylum seekers waiting in Indonesia to get on boats.

What other options does the government have?

The prime minister and Bowen have repeatedly pointed to departmental advice that a
return to the Pacific Solution would not work because asylum seekers were now aware that
it provided a pretty reliable pathway to refugee status in Australia or New Zealand.

But Labor has now backflipped on Nauru.

One thing is certain: the 2012 blame game will be ugly.

The government and opposition will blame every boat that arrives - or sinks - on the other.

AAP ag/klm/tab/it/de/klm

KEYWORD: YEARENDER BOAT REPEAT

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